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Utilizing a Panel Fixed Effects framework on longitudinal data (2021–2025), this study exposes an acute structural dysfunction within Indonesia’s “Emancipated Curriculum” across rural primary schools. While aggregate numeracy scores superficially surged by 12.30 points, cognitive recovery remains deeply asymmetric. Gains are heavily concentrated in procedural sub-domains like Algebra (+17.92 points), driven by mechanical drill-and-practice methods to meet macro accountability targets. Conversely, high-order reflective competencies like Literary Text comprehension stagnated at a mere 2.40-point increase, severely constrained by the rigid structural ceiling of household socioeconomic deprivation

This article dismantles the persistent urban bias in Indonesia’s educational planning, shifting the focus to structural stagnation within rural communities. Drawing on a massive longitudinal National Assessment dataset from 2021 to 2025—comprising over 47,000 observations—the analysis reveals a severe “cognitive hemorrhage” at the primary school level. By isolating rural samples and employing a rigorous Fixed Effects panel regression specification, the study effectively controls for time-invariant institutional characteristics to observe genuine policy impacts.

The Dark Side of Academic Recovery: Unveiling a Stark Social Paradox through Panel Data from 47,000 Rural Schools and Madrasahs.

An econometric analysis of 109,000 primary schools reveals that Indonesia’s post-pandemic learning recovery is hitting a structural ceiling. Why mass digitalization triggered a temporary ‘sugar rush’—and why long-term stagnation now looms over foundational literacy and numeracy.

Tens of trillions of rupiah flow every year in the name of “educational equity,” yet the cognitive future of our

Every year, the mandatory allocation of 20 percent of the state and regional budgets for education is loudly heralded as

Introduction The government has consistently positioned vocational education (Vocational High Schools / SMK) as a strategic pillar for developing a